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Euro/Dollar: Euro readying for Fall


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Thursday, the euro/dollar shot upwards without updating the minimum. The fixation of profit led to a fall in the dollar rate against many pairs. I did allow for such a scenario. The dollar weakened in the second half of the day after weak US Q3 GDP results and the same for the housing market numbers in the country. The euro/dollar renewed to 1.0985.

The preliminary number for US GDP in Q3 of 2015 was set at 1.5% (forecasted: 1.6%, revised: 3.9%).

The index for incomplete housing sales in the US fell by 2.3% (forecasted:1.0%, previous: -1.4%).

Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET: German retail sales;
  • At 12:00 EET, Eurozone October CPIs and September unemployment level;
  • At 14:30, Canadian August GDP, US base index on personal expenditure and changes in personal income levels for September;
  • At 15:45, the Chicago October PMI;
  • At 16:00 EET, Reuters/Michigan October consumer confidence index and FOMC member Williams is speaking.

Market Expectations:

In Asia the euro/dollar has shifted its maximum to 1.0997. The balance line was reached and in doing so the euro fell to 1.0965. I suppose that the euro is set to fall against the dollar until the end of the day. Of today’s news: it’s worth picking out Canadian GDP and Eurozone inflation figures.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1. 0997 (current Asian), minimum: 1.0915, close: 1.0930;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 119 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading by the LB. The MA line is heading downwards, so on my forecast I’ve gone for a weakening of the euro. If we see a break of 1.1005, stave off sales.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph


The euro/dollar spent Thursday in a correctional phase. The oscillator stochastic has flipped upwards, but the CCI is still minus 100. The target zone for the sellers it 1.0807-1.0818 (minimums from 27th May and 20th July). Now to the weekly.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


The line has been broken, now we’re waiting for a shift below 1.0818.

EUR/USD Weekly Graph

30 October, 09:12 (GMT+3)
Pound/Dollar: Break From 1.5242


Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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