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Euro/Dollar: Expected Fall to 1.1330

Hourly

Yesterday’s Trading:

On Tuesday the EUR/USD spent the day close to the LB at 1.1380. The euro fell from a maximum of 1.1410 to 1.1354. By hitting the LB, the euro/dollar switched into a sideways movement which will last for 14 hours.

Main news of the day:

  • At 11:30 EET, UK data on changes in average wages, August changes in the unemployment level for the country according to ILO standards and the number of applications for unemployment benefit in September are all out;
  • At 12:00 EET, the Eurozone is publishing its report on August changes in industrial production;
  • At 15:30 EET, the US is publishing retail trade data for September, as well as manufacturing prices for the month;
  • At 21:00 EET, the US’ Beige book from the Fed will be released.

Market Expectations:

At 11:30 some UK labour market data will be out. This is important for the pound. As such, you should expect a spurt of volatility on the euro/pound. On my Wednesday’s forecast I’ve gone for a fall of the euro to 1.1330.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1400 (current Asian), minimum: 1.1330, close: 1.1360;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 121 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar’s fall to the LB is continuing to attract new buyers. The LB has been a decent support since 7th October. However, today I expect the euro to fall to 1.1330 or to the 67th degree. I’m not a big fan of the technical picture on the 4H and the daily time frame. A close for the hour at 1.1415 will cancel out my idea for the fall.

Daily

On Tuesday the euro/dollar lifted to 1.1410. The 1.1459-1.1471 zone is still unreachable for the buyers due to the sharp fall on the UK pound. For the buyers’ positions to get on rolling, the sellers need just to push the euro lower than 1.1330. Now to the Weekly.

Weekly

The euro is still trading in a 1.1086-1.1459 sideways.

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