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Euro/Dollar: Expected Return to LB


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Tuesday the euro/dollar renewed from 1.1171 to 1.1278. No important US macroeconomic data came out. The ECB’s Mario Draghi didn’t mention monetary policy in his speech. I believe that a fall in the USD was provoked by the Canadian dollar which has been strengthening with the price of oil.

Brent is up 5.6% to 52.15 USD. The commodities market has reacted positively to OPEC General Secretary Abdallah Salem el-Badri’s speech in which he mentioned the readiness of OPEC’s 21 member states to meet other oil producer states to discuss global oil prices.

Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET, Germany is releasing its August industrial manufacturing report;
  • At 09:00 EET, the Bank of Japan will hold a press conference;
  • At 11:30 EET, the UK is publishing industrial production and manufacturing production data for August;
  • At 17:00 EET, a September assessment for UK GDP from NIESR will be in the public eye.

Market Expectations:

Of all the news out today, the ones that really stick out is the UK data on August industrial and manufacturing production. The Bank of Japan’s press conference will have an effect on yen crosses, but is unlikely to have any real effect on dollar pairs. Today I believe we’ll see a recoil of the EUR/USD to the LB.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1288 (Asia-Europe), minimum: 1.1220 (US), close: 1.1244;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 124 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading around 1.1276 against an Asian 1.1283 minimum. The price is between the U1 and U2 at the 90th degree. It could reach the 112th degree, but I’ll risk saying that it will fall to the LB from its current level. The price has stopped by the trend line on the daily. A close of the day above 1.1310/20 will open the road for the eurobulls to head to 1.1459.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph


The euro/dollar has returned to the trend line. The moment has come for market participants to mark out the triangle. The question is whether it will be going upwards or downwards. The wave structure is unclear. Now to the Weekly tab.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


The euro/dollar is still trading in a sideways between 1.1086 and 1.1459 and so we are still waiting for it to leave this channel.

EUR/USD Weekly Graph


Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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