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Euro/Dollar: Eurobulls Set to Return to 1.13

Hourly

Yesterday’s Trading:

On Tuesday the eurobulls didn’t manage to rewrite the 1.1295 maximum from 24th September. The euro/dollar returned from 1.1281 to 1.1193. It was bought up by the LB with the pair renewing to 1.1267 and, within 12 hours, the pair was trading at 1.1250.

Main news of the day:

  • At 9:00 EET, German August retail sales data is out;
  • At 10:55 EET, Germany will be letting us know its unemployment level and number of unemployed throughout September;
  • At 11:30 EET, the UK is publishing its balance of payments, GDP figures for Q2 and service sector business activity;
  • At 12:00 EET, the Eurozone is releasing its September CPI and its August unemployment level figures;
  • At 15:00 EET, William Dudley of the US Fed will give a speech;
  • At 15:15 EET, ADP’s September US employment report is out;
  • At 15:30 EET we will see Canadian July GDP figures;
  • At 16:45 EET, the US will release its Chicago September PMI;
  • At 22:00 EET Janet Yellen will speak.

Market Expectations:

The market will try to last it out like this until Friday when the US will publish its labor market report. Janet Yellen is speaking in the evening. I don’t think that the market will react to her speech. She’s already said everything she could say. It’s worth having a look at the ADP figures. A value way off the forecast could see sharp fluctuations for dollar pairs. The reaction to the report will last about 15 minutes.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1315 (Europe), minimum: 1.1239 (Asia current), close: 1.1260;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 123 points (4 figures).

Daily

The euro/dollar is still trading in the 1.1115-1.1295 pinbar range. I’ve not much else to add. The chances of a test of the trend line have increased. I expect a rebound from it since the stochastic indicator is already in the upper zone. Now to the Weekly.

Weekly

The euro/dollar is stuck in a sideways trend between 1.1086 and 1.1459. We need to wait for it to leave this trend on Friday.

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