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XBTUSD (Bitmex): a new phase of decline has begun

On Tuesday the 31st of July, trading on bitcoin closed down. The world’s top cryptocurrency depreciated by 5.46% against the dollar. The last 24 hours has seen 5.8bn USD in trading volume, including 2.6bn USD in purchases, and 3.1bn USD in sales.

Bitcoin’s summer sale started in the European session. After a bounce from 7,842 USD to 8,219 USD, buyers were blown away. They thrice tried to stop the ensuing drop; at 7,990 USD, 7,920 USD, and 7,620 USD. They tried to enter the market on short-term rebounds with market orders at 7,720 USD and 7,750 USD. All attempts failed. In today’s Asian session, bitcoin dropped further to 7,551 USD.

Factors in favour of the bears:

  • In the Asian session, a support was broken, which was previously a resistance before the breakout of the TR2 trend line. The line runs through the lows of 5,855 USD (05/02/18), 6,404 USD (01/04/18), and 7,060 USD (29/05/18).
  • According to the cycles, we should be moving from a bullish phase into a bearish one today (1st of August), which should continue until the 23rd.
  • The AO, AC, and CCi indicators are looking down.

Factors in favour of the bulls:

  • The upwards movement from 5,743 USD to 8,487 USD has undergone a 38.2% correction.
  • The price has reached the lower line of the channel (dotted lines on the chart).
  • Testing TR2. For a true breakout of the trend line, according to classical analysis, the price should return to the line before starting a new rally.

If pressure on bitcoin increases in the coming days, buyers will need to defend 6,800 USD, or they can forget about a rally at the end of the year. If the day closes below 7,300 USD, this will confirm the breakout of the TR2 line as false. For us to see growth again, the XBTUSD pair must stay above this line during its phase of decline (up to the 23rd of August).


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