The previous review on the BTCUSD daily chart was on the 6th of October. This was a continuation of the idea on the 3rd of October. At the time, with the price at 4,420 USD, I was expecting the bitcoin to fall against the dollar to around 3,995 USD, which would have marked around 50% of the upwards movement from 3,490 to 4,482.
The price missed its mark by 138 USD. The bitcoin rally continued from 4,133 USD on rumours that Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges would be licensed and allowed to continue to operate. In the space of 8 days, the bitcoin rose 30% to 5,961 USD. Growth on the BTCUSD pair gathered pace on the 12th of October after breaking through the psychological 5,000 USD barrier. Investors bought bitcoin so that they would receive units of Bitcoin Gold for free after the hardfork.
Fig 1. BTCUSD daily chart.
Since growth on the BTCUSD pair is speculative, it’s unclear at which level profit-taking will commence. All we can do is calculate the levels where the price could meet some resistance.
Growth subsided around the Fibonacci extension level (161.8%) at 5,961 USD from the range 2,980 – 4,970. Taken from various levels, we have a target zone of 5,961 – 6,200 USD.
If we draw a line (R1) connecting the tops 3,003 USD and 4,970 USD, its projection runs through 6,051 USD.
As the price approached the new psychological barrier of 6,000 USD, the pair went into a phase of consolidation. A downwards correction of 8.6% to 5,410 USD, triggered the start of the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the hourly timeframe, which came to an end after 28 hours. The price exited the triangle upwards, but this growth stalled around the 5,877 USD mark, from where the price collapsed to 5,450 USD. The triangle didn’t work out.
The indicators on the daily timeframe are overbought, but the upwards movement hasn’t yet stopped on the hourly timeframe. In theory, the price should reach our target zone of 5,961 – 6,200 USD, after which there will be a correction to give the hourly indicators a chance to unload.
On the chart, I’ve shown the price movements I expect to see. I’ll write more as the price approaches the target zone. If the daily candlestick closes below 5,412 USD, we can forget about bitcoin setting a new high before the hardfork.
The price could go straight down without hitting a new high. There are a lot of users and developers that don’t support SegWit2x. It’s currently supported by 85% of miners. If the share of miners that support it decreases, bitcoin will come under pressure. The hardfork should take place roughly around the 20th of November on the 494,784th block.