Yesterday marked the end of the month, quarter and first half of the year. Bitcoin declined by 5.93% to $35,045 in June and by 40.34% in Q2. Over the past six months, the world’s leading cryptocurrency gained 21.16%.
BTC shed 2.14% on Wednesday. In Asian trading, losses rose by 4.82%. The price action dropped to $33,360 against the intraday low of $33,186. Supply and demand are still balanced on the cryptocurrency market. No one is in a hurry to sell bitcoin, but buying has also tapered due to strength in the dollar. The US currency has been firming amid risk aversion due to the new Delta and Lambda Covid strains and expectations surrounding tomorrow’s June NFP report stateside.
The pullback stopped at 50% of the rise from $31,151 to $36,600. The price action dropped below $33,600. This is a bad sign for the bitcoin bulls since the risk of a drop to $32,149 (trendline from the $28,805 low) has increased. There are two time points from which upside could resume: July 1, 15:00 UTC and July 2, 06:00 UTC. Players will need to decide on the price level for the rebound. The first level is $32,149. Above it stands the $32,614-32,671 range (62% of the growth from $30,151 to $36,600 and 50% of the growth from $28,805 to $36,600).
From the high of $36,600, the decline shows a three-wave pattern. The 50% level looks good in terms of support. For buyers to return to the market, market players need a news trigger to break through the upper bound of the downward local channel at $34,500. Given how the dollar has heated up ahead of Friday's NFPs, we expect to see a breakout on Friday that will last until July 4.