Bitcoin sank 35% to $37,253 in May. The price range of the monthly candlestick is $29.5k or 98% ($30k – $ 59.5k), the body of the candle is $20,443 (54.8%), and the lower shadow is $7,253 (24%).
Two key horizontal levels formed on the monthly candlestick: $42,249 (50% of the candlestick range) and $47,080 (50% of the candlestick body). On the hourly TF, the price action rose to $37,894. The bulls fail to recover losses. Consolidation lasts more than 12 days and can take up to 50 days (+/- 5 days).
The $40,000-42,500 range is a concrete slab for buyers. The bears no longer allow the bulls to approach it. From the low of $33,379 to $37,894, the upward momentum consists of a three-wave structure. If, within 30 hours, the bulls do not test the $39k level, then clouds will start to gather over the bulls. Right now, it’s still hard to say whether or not a hurricane could be in the offing.
The market desperately needs some input in the form of positive news flow to get out of the rut it’s stuck in and recover at least 60% of the decline from $64,854 to $30,000, i.e. up to about $51,500. There, next to it is the trend line (H64,854 - H59,500). The bulls have technical capabilities, but apparently not the physical stamina. Marking time plays into the hands of the bears.
Bottom line: May was the worst month this year for digital currencies. The bulls failed to pare losses. Consolidation lasts more than 12 days and can take up to 50 days (+/- 5 days). The $40,000-42,500 range is a concrete slab for buyers to break through as soon as possible. If, within 30 hours, (until 5:00 UTC 02/06/21) the bulls do not test the $39k level, then clouds will start to gather. Then there is a risk that $33,500 will be tested, followed by a retracement to the low of $30,000. Marking time plays into the hands of the bears.