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Brent could still retrace to $100/bbl

Oil prices continue to trend sharply higher today after taking a breather on Friday, with Brent up more than 4.6% to $98.56/bbl, while WTI was up 4.5% above $95/bbl by the time of writing.

The oil market is concerned about the EU’s decision to disconnect a number of Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, which will make it difficult to export crude to the EU, and possibly reduce the supply of energy resources and raise prices. In addition, the market fears possible future sanctions against the Russian energy sector. An OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for March 2, which will consider the issue of boosting oil output. However, production quotas will most likely be left unchanged again, since some members of the OPEC+ agreement, such as Iraq are not yet prepared to execute even the current terms of the agreement in full due to domestic difficulties.

The Brent price climbed above $100/bbl last week, but failed to hold that level. Meanwhile, today the price action bounced off the $94-95/bbl support level, and is most likely ready to retest the $100/bbl mark in the medium term. Our Brent price forecast for today is in the $97-99/bbl range.

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