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Oil prices capped by conflicting news

Oil prices continued their ascent on Monday, October 11, with Brent advancing 1.27% to a new high of $83.17/bbl, and WTI rose 1.2% to $79.95/bbl, after testing $80/bbl during the day.

The sharp rise in coal prices in China and Europe, which has already exceeded $220/t, has contributed to higher demand for oil, which has not risen year-to-date as much as gas and coal. In addition, the World Bank revised its global economic growth forecast, raising its estimate for the recovery of global GDP growth in 2021 to 5.7%, and this news is feeding into an additional positive backdrop for the growth of commodity markets.

Oil prices are down slightly this morning, likely due to media reports about a possible crisis in China that could be attributable to soaring energy prices. By the time of writing, Brent was up 0.18%, and WTI was 0.10% higher, approaching the psychologically important $80/bbl level. Our estimate today for the Brent price is in the range of $83-84/bbl.

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