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Market doubts Iranian oil will return anytime soon

On Tuesday, May 25, the oil market corrected lower following gains, but the downward momentum was sluggish and undecisive. As a result, the Brent price fell only 0.03% on the day to $68.32/bbl, and WTI dipped 0.12% to $65.82/bbl.

Yesterday’s mild correction in the oil market was stoked by more news about Iran. According to media reports, Iran is set to ramp up oil exports in 3Q 2021 if an agreement on a nuclear deal can be reached with the West, with exports reportedly set to increase by 1 mln bpd.

That said, the oil market is cognizant that in order for Iran to significantly increase exports, it will first be necessary to hammer out a nuclear deal, while the negotiating process is challenging.

The Brent price is creeping higher again today, up 0.58%, while WTI was up 0.52% at the time of writing, exceeding this morning’s local high of $66/bbl. Our Brent price forecast for today still remains in the range of $68-69/bbl.


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