Oil prices trended lower on Monday, April 5 as the market emerged from the long Easter weekend. Brent slipped 3.6% to $62.11/bbl and WTI slid 4% to $58.76/bbl on the day.
Since April 1, Russia and Kazakhstan have been increasing up oil production, but right now the market looks much more concerned about a ramp-up in "shadow" oil exports from Iran. The market's attention is riveted on Iran ahead of today’s indirect talks in Vienna on the nuclear deal: if Iran makes concessions, the embargo will be lifted, and such a move could flood the market with oil from that country.
Oil prices are back on the rise again this morning, apparently due to the toughening of US rhetoric against Iran. As a result, Brent is up 1.4%, but still remains below $63/bbl, while WTI is trading 1.6% higher, although it has not yet reached $60/bbl. Our Brent price forecast for today is in the range of $62-64/bbl.