XAGUSD: Breakout brewing…

XAGUSD gains 7% year-to-date
Silver currently outperforms gold in 2026
US NFP report on Friday could spark significant swings
Technical levels: $72.50 and $79.00

Silver is staging a comeback.

Locked in a tight $72.50 - $79.00 range since mid-May, this precious metal is quietly outpacing gold—up 7% YTD versus gold's 5%.

With geopolitical risks intensifying, a breakout could be on the horizon.

WHAT COULD IMPACT SILVER?

Conflicting signals from the US and Iran have cast doubt over a resolution to the Iran war.

If these fears translate to a stronger dollar and fuel bets around higher US rates, silver prices could be the firing line.

Note: Earlier in the year silver with supported by elevated central bank purchases, ETF inflows, industrial demand and lower US interest rates and a weaker dollar.

WHAT COULD MOVE XAGUSD THIS WEEK?

The outlook for silver remains contingent on developments in the Middle East.

Escalating US-Iran tensions -> stronger dollar + inflation fears -> rising Fed hike bets -> bearish silver.

Rising hopes of a peace deal -> weaker dollar + cooling inflation fears -> falling Fed hike bets -> bullish Silver.

Friday 5th June

• US May NFP report –

On the data front, the May US jobs report on Friday 5th June may provide critical insight into the health of the labour markets.

89,000 jobs are expected to have been created, down from 115,000 in the previous month. A weak report could add fuel to silvers upside, especially if this further shaves bets around higher US rates in 2026.

XAGUSD is forecasted to move 1.6% up or 0.5% down in a 6-hour window after the US NFP report.

Note: Traders are pricing in a 63% probability that the Fed hikes rates by December 2026.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

BULLISH – A solid daily close above $79 may trigger an incline toward $81.33 – the upper bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

BEARISH – Weakness below $72.50 could see prices decline toward $72 – the lower bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

Silver