Markets head into the new week with geopolitical tensions temporarily easing as negotiations in the Middle East enter a quieter phase. With oil prices stabilizing, investors are shifting their focus back to monetary policy and the outlook for US interest rates.
The release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will be the week's headline event. Traders will look for fresh insight into how Federal Reserve officials assess inflation, economic growth and the timing of future policy moves. Any signs that policymakers remain concerned about inflation could reinforce expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, supporting the US dollar.
Beyond the Fed Minutes, markets will monitor fresh data on the US housing sector, UK inflation and China's economic activity for additional clues on the health of the global economy.
Our focus this week will be on Alpari's USDInd, which may be preparing for a larger breakout move as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Markets will closely monitor the publication of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes for fresh clues on the outlook for US monetary policy. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East temporarily easing, investors are expected to shift their attention back toward economic fundamentals and central bank expectations.
Monday, August 17th: China Industrial Production and Retail Sales
China's latest activity data will provide an important update on the strength of the world's second-largest economy and could influence sentiment across commodity and currency markets.
Monday, August 17th: Canada CPI
Canada's inflation report may influence expectations around future Bank of Canada policy decisions and drive volatility in the Canadian dollar.
Wednesday, August 19th: UK CPI
The latest UK inflation figures could shape expectations around the Bank of England's policy outlook and influence the British pound.
Wednesday, August 19th: FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting will provide investors with a deeper understanding of policymakers' views on inflation, economic growth and interest rates. Any hawkish signals could offer fresh support for the US dollar.
Friday, August 21st: Germany and UK Flash PMIs
Business activity surveys will offer an early snapshot of economic momentum across Europe's largest economies and could drive volatility in the euro and pound.
Friday, August 21st: Japan CPI
Japan's inflation report may provide fresh clues on the outlook for Bank of Japan policy and the pace of further monetary policy normalization.