Markets enter the new week with attention shifting back to inflation and monetary policy. Two key events—the European Central Bank meeting and the latest US inflation report—could reshape expectations for interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.
The ECB is widely expected to deliver another rate increase on Thursday as policymakers continue their fight against inflation. Investors will focus less on the decision itself and more on President Christine Lagarde's guidance regarding the pace of future tightening and the outlook for the eurozone economy.
Attention will then turn to Friday's US CPI report. Any signs that inflation remains sticky could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance, supporting the US dollar. Conversely, softer inflation could revive speculation about future policy easing.
Our focus this week will be on Alpari's USDInd, which may be preparing for a larger breakout move as markets react to fresh inflation signals from both the US and Europe.
Central banks and inflation in focus
Markets will closely monitor two major events next week—the European Central Bank's policy decision and the latest US inflation report—as investors reassess the outlook for global interest rates. Economic data from China and the US producer inflation report will also provide additional insight into the global economic backdrop.
Tuesday, September 8th: China Trade Data
China's exports, imports and trade balance will offer a fresh assessment of global demand and the health of the world's second-largest economy, with potential implications for commodity and currency markets.
Thursday, September 10th: ECB Interest Rate Decision
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates once again. Investors will focus on President Christine Lagarde's comments for clues about future policy moves and the economic outlook.
Thursday, September 10th: US Producer Price Index (PPI)
Producer inflation will provide an updated view of pipeline price pressures ahead of Friday's CPI report.
Friday, September 11th: US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The week's key release. Inflation data could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger-than-expected reading may support the US dollar, while softer inflation could strengthen expectations of future rate cuts.
Friday, September 11th: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The preliminary September survey will provide fresh insight into consumer confidence and inflation expectations, both closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers.