This Week: markets brace for Nvidia, Fed and PCE reading

• Nvidia Q1 earnings may swing stock over 6% up/down
• FOMC minutes to signal Fed’s rate path ahead
• US PCE to shape US500’s next market move
• Dollar reacts to deficit and credit downgrade
• Geopolitical, trade risks cloud sentiment

This week’s releases of the FOMC minutes, PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), and Nvidia earnings could determine whether the US exceptionalism story faces further erosion, leaving the US dollar index (USDInd), US500 index, and Nvidia stocks exposed.

These major events come on the back of risk appetite being bruised by rising US fiscal deficit concerns due to President Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill (read: tax cuts) and Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. Also, keep an eye on the latest developments surrounding global trade and geopolitical tensions.

Events Watchlist:

Wednesday, May 28th: FOMC Minutes – USDInd

The FOMC Minutes will be closely watched for any hawkish signals which could strengthen the US dollar. A tone suggesting higher-for-longer rates may potentially push USDInd towards 21-day SMA. Conversely a dovish tilt might trigger a further pullback towards year-to-date lows around 98.0.

Wednesday, May 28th: Nvidia Earnings

Nvidia’s stock is expected to swing 6.79% up/down following the release of its Q1 FY2026 earnings report. Despite the analysts’ expectations of a rise in both revenue and earnings per share, investors are likely to focus on Nvidia’s challenges stemming from reduced business in China and its forward-looking guidance on navigating these headwinds.

Friday, May 30th: US PCE Reading – US500

Investors will be closely watching the release of the US PCE reading – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – for signs of continued pricing pressures. A hotter-than-expected reading could alter the rate cuts’ trajectory, potentially pushing US500 lower to test its 21-day SMA for support. Conversely, a softer print may boost risk sentiment, supporting US500’s rebound to 6 000.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, May 26

• US, UK Markets Closed

Tuesday, May 27

• CHINAH: China April Industrial Profits
• USDJPY: Speeches by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
• EUR: Germany June Consumer Confidence; Euro Area May Economic Sentiment
• US30: US May Consumer Confidence April Durable Goods Orders
• BTC: US Vice President JD Vance to speak at Bitcoin Conference

Wednesday, May 28

• AU200: Australia April CPI
• NZD: RBNZ rate decision
• EUR: ECB April Consumer Inflation Expectations
• GER40: Germany May Unemployment Data
• US500: FOMC Meeting Minutes; speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
• Nvidia Earnings

Thursday, May 29

• JP225: Japan May Consumer Confidence
• SPN35: Spain April Retail Sales
• US400 index: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• USDInd: Speeches by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speech, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
• WTI: US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Change, EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks
• NG: US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change

Friday, May 30

• JPY: US-Japan trade talks; May Tokyo CPI
• JP225: Japan April Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales
• GER40: Germany May Inflation Rate
• CAD: Canada Q1 & April GDP
• US500: US April PCE, personal income and spending

Saturday, May 31

• CHINAH: China May NBS PMIs

Sunday, June 1

• Brent: OPEC+ supply hike decision