DID YOU KNOW:
Gold has been consolidating for nearly two weeks after its sharp rally at the start of August.
The metal continues to struggle around the 100-day SMA, with buyers repeatedly failing to secure a convincing breakout.
Even so, gold is still up roughly 7% in August, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since February.
WHY IS GOLD STUCK?
Gold is caught between easing Fed expectations and persistent geopolitical and inflation risks.
• Hormuz uncertainty
The geopolitical backdrop remains fragile. Trump said on Tuesday that no talks with Iran are currently taking place, leaving the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Any further escalation could push energy prices higher, revive inflation concerns and strengthen expectations for tighter Fed policy — a potential headwind for gold.
• Fed expectations are shifting
Markets now price roughly a 35% chance of a September rate hike, down from around 50% a week ago. Lower expectations for further tightening are supportive for non-yielding assets such as gold and have helped limit the downside.
• The 100-day SMA remains the key technical hurdle
Gold continues to test this moving average but has yet to break decisively higher. A sustained move above it would strengthen the bullish case and open the way toward the 200-day SMA. Until then, consolidation may continue.
WHAT COULD MOVE GOLD NEXT?
The Fed minutes are the main event.
Investors will look closely at the July meeting for clues on how divided policymakers are over the next rate move.
• Dovish minutes could reinforce expectations that rates will remain unchanged, weighing on the dollar and supporting gold.
• A hawkish surprise could revive rate-hike expectations, lift yields and put renewed pressure on bullion.
TA OVERVIEW
Gold remains in consolidation, with the 100-day SMA acting as the immediate breakout level. A clear move above resistance would strengthen the bullish setup, while another rejection could keep the metal trapped in its recent range.
OTHER NEWS
• Trump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for three days, subject to a deal
• Trump says no talks with Iran are taking place or scheduled
• Anthropic’s revenue run rate tops $65 billion ahead of its IPO
