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Short-term Trading Idea FX EUR/USD – Bull Speculation: Renewal as Part of a Correction

Vladislav Antonov

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the euro/dollar jumped from 1.0518 after the ECB meeting and Draghi’s press conference. The euro/dollar and euro/pound on the weekly have formed a double bottom. The euro bulls won’t have the wind knocked out of them that easily. As things stand, there are two outcomes; the main one is the formation of an upward triangle with a 1.1178 target. When the euro closes below 1.0807, this triangle scenario will be off the cards and instead a different scenario with a slide to 1.0518 will be on. Look to sell from 1.1180/1.12.

Background

I’ve had a proper look at all of the currency pairs. From a technical point of view, there’s not much interesting knocking about. After the ECB meeting and Draghi’s press conference, I had to return to the euro and pound.

Current Situation

The price at the time of publishing this review is 1.0875. The euro dollar ricocheted from the 1.0518 minimum by 440 points to 1.0980. The active closing of short positions on the euro was facilitated by the ECB’s decision and the announcement made by Mario Draghi. Market participants expected more aggressive measures with regards to loosening monetary policy.

The strengthening of the euro slowed on Friday after the NFP report was published. The report came out better than expected with US job creation in the non-agricultural sector up in November by 211,000 (forecasted: 200,000) October’s value was reassessed upwards from 271k to 298k, with September also reassessed from 137k to 145k (August: dropped from 142k to 137k). The total reassessment equals an addition of +35,000 jobs.

US unemployment throughout November remained at 5%. The index for average hourly wages was up by 0.2% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: 0.4%). The percentage of working population also increased by 0.1% to 62.4%.

What’s of interest at the moment?

Thursday closed the 20 previous trading days. The euro/dollar lifted again above 1.0807-1.0835 which was previously a support. Market participant attention is now focussed on the FOMC meeting set for 16th December.

The NFP forebodes the 0.25% increase of the base rate by the US Fed on 16th December. This increase is already incorporated into the prices and this is why gold shot up after the NFP, with the pound and euro down. So what next?

On Thursday, the ECB dropped its deposit interest rate and increased the scope of its asset purchasing program until March 2017. Market participants expected more aggressive measures to be taken – even further loosening of monetary policy – and so were disappointed. It’s clear to see that there were many short positions closed last week.

I’ve written many times in my reviews that the bear phase on the cycles finished between 20th and 24th November 2015. The euro’s fall slowed on 23rd November. The euro/dollar market flipped on its head on 3rd December.

Taking the last quotes on the cycles into account, we get the following: growth up to 19/12/15, a fall up to 13/01/16, growth up to 23/02/16 and a fall until 01/04/16.

 

It’s also worth paying attention to the double bottom on the weekly time frame for the euro/pound cross (see below). The pound is being sold throughout the market because the BoE isn’t in any rush to hike its interest rate up. There is a reserve for growth of the euro against the pound. This means that the euro bulls won’t quit so easily. Even more so since the same model is forming on the euro/dollar on the weekly.

I’m taking the downward movement from 1.1494 to 1.0518 as a Fibonacci. With it we get a 1.1003-1.1173 resistance zone. The trend line crosses through at 1.1236. After the daily candle at 440 points, the euro rally could slow. The question is, which path is the euro dollar going to take?

Usually after a sharp growth we see a long consolidation starting. Remember the strengthening of the franc at the start of 2015? For the moment I see two developments: an upward triangle with a 1.1178 target and a smooth drop to 1.0518.

The price is currently above 1.0807. This means that when the euro closes below 1.0807, the triangle scenario will be no longer relevant and the other, falling scenario will come into effect. I’m sure that in the next couple of days we will see a test of 1.0807, so it’s better not to rush making any purchases and wait for a rebound instead. Keep watch for whether it recoils and only then take the decision to sell or buy euro.

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Attention:

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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